What are the odds? - Inquisitorem

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What are the odds?
Monday 23 January 2017

It's not whether you can predict the winner or not. There is, without doubt, a predictability about football. Every final league table has a familiar look about it in May, does it not? The better teams win more often. 

But bettors are not in the business of finding winners alone. Finding winners alone will not reward them with profit. The odds on offer will invariably be too skinny. The real work for any bettor serious about making profit, is in overcoming what can only be described as the handicap. Bettors have to negotiate the handicap (the odds). The betting market is a derivative of sorts. It's a melting pot of opinion, and every player is looking to agree on a handicap, based on their calculations, that they think will best afford them a winning chance long term, financially that is.

In much the same way a property investor / developer makes his money when he buys and not when he sells, a bettor makes his money based on the odds he takes, not the outcome.

Blindly backing every selection at any specific price (every selection at 2/1, for example) will lose you money. That is because more often than not, the handicap assigned (odds on offer) are not an accurate reflection of the probability. It's the job of the layer to see to it. The bettors job is to find the winners that have been inaccurately handicapped by the layer. Not quite such a sexy gig, this betting for a living game.

In much the same way a property investor / developer is looking for property available at below market value.

£5004 PROFIT !
AVERAGE of £1000.80 per month !
From BACKING home qualifiers and
LAYING their opponents !

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Inquisitorem (the researcher) is looking for a systematic way to highlight teams priced at 1/1 or longer, that win more than 50% of the time. Therefore, the criteria or rules of engagement are only applied to teams fitting that price stipulation, as a starting point. To apply the rules to teams that are shorter would be insane! Unless, of course, you are hitting a much higher success rate with your prediction method.
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